Morning Brief

Washington’s New Geostrategic Pivot: Rewiring Global Critical Minerals Supply Chains to Challenge China’s Dominance in the AI Age

The US is pushing for engagement with Africa and near-shoring as a strategic response to China's dominance in critical minerals supply chains.
Published by
Central Office
on December 29, 2025
on December 29, 2025
Image Source:
trendsresearch.org
Image Description:
The US-China race for dominance in critical minerals supply chains.

In recent months, the Trump administration's foreign policy has focused almost exclusively on securing new supply chains for critical minerals, especially rare earth minerals, elements considered rare not because of their lack of abundance but because of the high costs of extraction and refining. China has propelled itself as a major player by leveraging its competitive advantage in this sector, adjudicating its near monopoly in extraction (about 70%) and refining (over 90%). This outcome increased Beijing's strategic position in trade negotiations with Washington, an aspect that President Trump pointed to as critical to be changed through a mix of political, diplomatic, and economic initiatives:

First, the Trump administration has agreed on a political and diplomatic coalition with its partners in favour of securing supply chains for critical minerals needed in the AI industry, an area where the US is thriving to become the world leader. In addition to the defense industry and new clean technologies for environmental protection, critical minerals are indispensable to the huge data centers that power AI infrastructure. Permanent magnets are needed to process algorithms as an essential part of the hardware and physical infrastructure that support AI. Currently, China dominates the production of permanent magnets (about 94%), a position that the US-led coalition, called Pax Silica and composed of the UK, Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, UAE, Israel and the Netherlands, seeks to challenge. Before Pax Silica, in 2022, the Biden administration together with the EU`s European Commission launched the Minerals Security Partnership aimed towards securing supply chains for critical minerals, with an emphasis on environmental, social, and governance standards.

Second, the Trump administration is seeking to help propel the semiconductor and critical minerals industries by facilitating near-shoring by acquiring stakes in responsible companies such as Lithium Americas, MP Materials and the Vancouver-based miner Trilogy Metals. In the latter, the US government agreed to take 10% stakes and announced investments in transportation logistics in Alaska's Ambler district, an area that potentially yields deposits of rare earths and where the company operates. This decision represents a reversal of a 2024 Biden-enacted decision to uphold any investments in the district's road connectivity, fearing that increased mining development would harm local wildlife and thus affect the fishing industry that supports the livelihood of the native population.

Lastly, the Trump administration is pushing harder for the 2023-launched Lobito Corridor, a 1,300 km long railway project that the US is co-leading together with the EU to transport critical minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to the ports of Angola. The natural basin in the three countries is rich in critical minerals and plays an important role in American national and economic security in the age of advanced technologies and AI. This was also recognized by the Biden administration, which designated the Lobito Corridor a major US project aimed first to promote US engagement in Africa and then to challenge the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the continent. China’s ambitions in the African mining industry (especially in copper, cobalt and lithium) began in the early 2000s. China currently owns or has stakes in 15 of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s 19 cobalt mines, and is showing interest in Zimbabwe’s lithium industry through well-targeted investment projects. This has given Beijing a significant head start in the production of permanent magnets that Washington considers vital for the national defence and renewable energy technologies. Until recently, the US has remained largely passive to the Chinese inroads in Africa, especially through the BRI. During his visit to Angola in 2024, President Biden pledged 600 million USD to the Lobito Corridor as part of his `Africa is the Future` remark, thus making the US total investment in the project reach 4 billion USD out of the 6 billion in total investments by all parties concerned. Business interest in financing the Lobito Corridor was quickly noted. In February 2024, a private-public initiative colloquially known as the Lobito Corridor Private Sector Investor Forum took shape in Lusaka (Zambia), bringing together more than 250 business and government leaders from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Zambia, the EU and the US.  More recently, in December 2025, the US Development Finance Corporation has signed an agreement with a consortium of companies for a loan of over half a billion USD in the development of the railway.

Conclusion:

Securing supply chains for critical minerals, dominated for many years by China, has become the main geostrategic objective in Washington in 2025. Strategies in favour of near-shoring found bipartisan consensus between Republicans and Democrats several decades after the decision to outsource the domestic mining activities towards other countries given the financial and environmental considerations that have affected the American mining industry in the past.
Bibliography:
Trump’s AI Mineral Hunt Goes Global: Trump’s AI Mineral Hunt Goes Global, Foreign Policy Magazine
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/18/trump-ai-critical-minerals-supply-chain-tech-pax-silica/

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